A Study on the Caucasus Region: Crop Model Based on “Slow” Climate Change over the Last 60 Years

A Study on the Caucasus Region: Crop Model Based on “Slow” Climate Change over the Last 60 Years

The analysis is based on instrumental data (temperature and rainfall) from 20 weather stations located between 1961 and 2018 on the territory of the Caucasian region. Mathematical statistics approaches, trend analysis and the rescaled range approach have been used. The warming trend was found to have occurred in all climate zones, accelerated since the beginning of global warming (since 1976), although precipitation shifts were not so unidirectional. Maximum warming (average of 0.38 ° C/10 years) in all climate zones was observed in the summer. The Hurst exponent H (range of variance from 0 to 1) was used to examine persistence patterns, which showed a higher trend in persistence of annual mean temperature changes (H = 0.8) relative to annual sum precipitation (H = 0.8) To = 0.64). The precipitation and temperature spatial correlation analysis showed a rapid decrease in the correlation of precipitation at different weather stations from rp = 1 to rp = 0.5 on a distance scale from 0 to 200 km. A multiplicative model of agrometeorological resources was proposed to take into account the “slow” climate changes, during the construction of which it was presumed that they were determined by seasonal values of average air temperature and precipitation. Two models of agro-climatic tools are proposed, provided the seasonal characteristics of crop cultivation (winter wheat, spring wheat).

Author (s) Details

Dr. Boris A. Ashabokov
Federal State Budgetary Institution, High-Mountain Geophysical Institute, Lenin av., 2, 360030 Nalchik, Russia and Institute of Computer Science and Problems of Regional Management, Kabardino-Balkarian Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, I. Armand str., 37а, 360000 Nalchik, Russia.

Alla A. Tashilova
Federal State Budgetary Institution, High-Mountain Geophysical Institute, Lenin av., 2, 360030 Nalchik, Russia.

Lara A. Kesheva
Federal State Budgetary Institution, High-Mountain Geophysical Institute, Lenin av., 2, 360030 Nalchik, Russia.

Nataliya V. Teunova
Federal State Budgetary Institution, High-Mountain Geophysical Institute, Lenin av., 2, 360030 Nalchik, Russia.

View Book :- https://bp.bookpi.org/index.php/bpi/catalog/book/305

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