The COVID-19 pandemic that is sweeping the globe has taken an unusual turn in our country. The goal of the study was to predict a collection of parameters (deaths, critical, severe, serious, confirmed, and new cases) associated with the SARS pandemic CoV-2 COVID-19 in Cuba during the year 2020 using the Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) methodology. Deaths, severe, critical, confirmed, and new cases in Santa Clara municipality, Villa Clara province, and Cuba were among the parameters examined. Objective Regressive Regression (ORR) modelling was utilised, which is based on a combination of Dummy variables and ARIMA modelling. According to the ROR approach, In the first phase, the dichotomic variables DS, DI, and NoC are formed, and then the module corresponding to the Regression analysis is run, specifically the ENTER method, which returns the predicted variable and the ERROR. Mathematical models were obtained using the ROR methodology, which explained their behaviour based on 6, 4, 10, and 14 days ahead of time, depending on the variable to be studied, allowing for long-term prognoses and clinical measures to be taken, avoiding and reducing the number of deaths and complications in COVID-19 patients. Despite the fact that COVID-19 is a novel disease in the globe, it can be tracked using mathematical ROR modelling, which allows for a reduction in the number of dead, severe, and critical patients, allowing for better pandemic management.
Author (S) Details
Rigoberto Fimia-Duarte
Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing (FHTN), University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara (UMS-VC), Cuba.
Jorge Luis Contreras Vidal
Central University “Marta Abreu” of Las Villas, Villa Clara, Cuba.
David Del Valle Laveaga
Academic Area of Health, Maya World University, México.
Ricardo Osés Rodríguez
Provincial Meteorological Center, Villa Clara, Cuba.
Rafael Armiñana García
Central University “Marta Abreu” of Las Villas, Villa Clara, Cuba.
María Patricia Zambrano Gavilanes
Veterinary Medicine Career, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnic, Technical University of Manabí, Manabí, Ecuador.
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